The smoke from the February 28 strikes has yet to settle, but a far more toxic cloud is hanging over Tehran. Officially, Mojtaba Khamenei is the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. Yet, in the weeks following the start of this devastating war with the U.S. and Israel, it has become painfully clear that the Leader is little more than a ghost—a figurehead sequestered behind a military cordon, while the gears of the state are turned by a council of generals.
In my view, the Islamic Republic as we knew it died with Ali Khamenei. What remains is a military junta draped in a cleric's robes.
The Hostage at the Top: The Isolation of Mojtaba
The most alarming development isn't just that Mojtaba Khamenei is injured or invisible—it’s that he is effectively a prisoner of the system he supposedly leads. Reports of a military council surrounding him suggest that the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) is no longer taking orders; they are managing the information that reaches him.
Authority in Iran was always a performance of visibility and arbitration. By keeping Mojtaba in the shadows, IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi has removed the only check on military power. Without a vocal Supreme Leader to balance the factions, the state's religious legitimacy has been replaced by security-centric survival.
The Death of Diplomacy: Ghalibaf’s Resignation and the End of Logic
Nothing illustrates the regime's internal decay more than the recent sideline of Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. As Speaker of Parliament and a pragmatic former general, Ghalibaf was Tehran’s last bridge to the outside world. His reported resignation as the lead negotiator for the Islamabad talks—driven by IRGC interference—is the final nail in the coffin of Iranian diplomacy.
When a seasoned figure like Ghalibaf is reprimanded for even suggesting that nuclear concessions be on the table, it signals that the IRGC has chosen a path of total, uncompromising confrontation. The pragmatists (Pezeshkian and Araghchi) are now merely window dressing, forced to defend military decisions they didn't make and couldn't stop.
A Military Council Replaces the Divine Mandate
We are witnessing a structural metamorphosis. Historically, the Supreme Leader held the final word on foreign policy and war. Today, Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle are the ones vetoing presidential appointments and controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
This is no longer a government; it is a siege engine. By blocking President Pezeshkian from appointing his own intelligence minister, the IRGC has signaled that during wartime, the civilian government is irrelevant. This rail-laying for military dominance ensures that even if Mojtaba recovers, the power has already shifted irrevocably into the barracks.
FAQs:
Who is actually running the Iranian government right now?
While Mojtaba Khamenei holds the title of Supreme Leader, de facto control has shifted to a military council led by IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi. This council oversees sensitive appointments, military strategy, and restricts the flow of information to the Supreme Leader’s office, effectively sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian’s civilian administration.
Is there any hope for a diplomatic solution to the current war?
The prospects for diplomacy are at an all-time low. The IRGC has recently forced pragmatists like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf out of the negotiating delegation and issued a strict no nuclear concessions mandate. Without a central arbiter to overrule the military’s hardline stance, Tehran appears locked into a strategy of maximalist resistance.
What is the status of Mojtaba Khamenei’s health?
Publicly, the regime maintains a facade of unity, but reports suggest Mojtaba sustained significant injuries in the February 28 strikes. His absence from public life since taking office in March 2026 indicates he may be incapacitated or severely limited in his ability to lead, allowing the IRGC to consolidate power in his name.
How is the IRGC maintaining control over the population?
The IRGC has utilized the wartime state of emergency to crush internal dissent and protests that began in early 2026. By controlling the narrative through state media and enforcing a security perimeter around the leadership, they have unified the various hardline factions under a single, military-led banner.
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